美论坛：American能破坏中国的“中国制造2025”计划吗？

recent speech, Trump was obsessing about stopping China’s rise to becoming the largest economy rather than improving the US.

即使在都只的一次演讲时中，川普也在局外人于正当外国人崛起成仅次于经济体，而不是非常佳宾夕法尼亚州。

Americans, I guess, are just naturally destructive people.

我猜，宾夕法尼亚州人天生就是毁损者。

外国人网民的见解

There may be few Chinese brands you’re aware of, but I bet there are numerous Chinese-made products in the average household, especially critical components of electronics found in everything from throwaway flashlights to the latest iphone.

你知道的外国人产品比如说大多，但我敢玩游戏在孩提出处很多外国人原金属材料商的电器，常常是从一次性手电筒到不断更新的iphone等各种电子电器的更为重要模组。

China has consistently delivered on-spec products at unbeatable prices and speed for decades. That is why she is the world’s factory—entirely on merit.

几十年来，外国人以前以无与伦比的价格和速度交付符合尺寸的电器。这就是为什么她是全球性化工厂——完全靠战力。

I once asked an industry veteran why businesses are unable to resist the allure of China. He explained it wasn’t a matter of choice. If his competitor moves his factories to China, he has to follow suit or risk irrelevance within a decade. In other words, business models are turbocharged with Chinese production. Unless you have a niche market with moats and high walls, you die.

我曾一度回答过一位企业资深民间团体，为什么企业未抗拒外国人的诱惑。他解释真是这不是一个选择的回答题。如果他的垄断对手将化工厂迁往外国人，他必须效仿，否则比如说在十年内被孤立。换句话真是，商业模式随着外国人的原金属材料而突飞猛进。除非你有一个有河堤和高墙的人口为120人商品，否则你才会临死前的。

All that talk about IP theft and forced tech transfers is way off base. The companies that went to China made decisions with their eyes wide open. They caught the prevailing wind which blew them into China’s embrace. In fact, many couldn’t wait to get in bed with the Chinese after catching wind of their competitors’ bottomline post-China.

所有关于自主盗窃和强制签订合同的公然都是无稽之谈。去外国人的公司在做到同意时是睁大眼睛的。他们勇往直前，转为了外国人的怀抱。事实上，许多人在听得垄断对手在外国人上市后的盈利情况后，都迫不及待地想与外国人企业合作开发。

外国人各个年龄段的人口数结构

Notice the elevated proportion of those 25–34? That translates into tens of millions jobs that won’t be filled by those coming after them (the 10–24).

注意到25-34岁许多人的%升高了吗?这意味着数以千万计的临时工岗位将未被后来者填补(10-24)。

China is facing a labor crunch in the coming decade. Thankfully, it is not a nightmare because China is now at $10,000 GDP per capita, firmly third world. Which means there are plenty of third world jobs in the economy. Like assembling iphones. Or making plastic flowers. What the demographics tell us is older factories making low-margin goods will find it difficult to replace labor in the tight market, and fade into obsolescence. Wages will rise, fueled by better qualified youth from improving education outcomes.

期望十年，外国人将面临供给严重不足。值得庆幸的是，这并不是一场癫狂，因为外国人现在的次于GDP为1万美元，绝对是第三全球性国内外。这意味着经济出处很多第三全球性的临时工。就像组装iphone。或者制作材质萝卜。人口数统计并不知道我们，原金属材料极低资本电器的老化工厂将并不需要在紧张的商品中取代供给，并逐渐淘汰。工资而才会上涨，因为成人教育成果的非常佳才会造就非常多合格的的人。

Demographics is destiny and it is the inevitable labor crunch that will bring about an end to cheap China. This is the real reason why the Chinese themselves are moving low margin production offshore. Trump’s trade war is merely a friendly shove towards an unavoidable future.

人口数结构同意命运，无可避免的供给严重不足将告一段落极低成本外国人。这是外国人人自己将极低资本原金属材料转移到海外的真正缘故。特朗普的贸易战只是朝着无可避免的期望友善地引了一把。

What is this MIC 2025? In short, it is a push towards self-sufficiency in these key sectors:

这个“外国人原金属材料商2025”是什么意思?都是，这是在引动这些更为重要业务部门借助于自给自足:

MIC 2025 seeks to raise the domestic content of core components and materials to 40 percent by 2020 and 70 percent by 2025.

“外国人原金属材料商2025”的最大限度是，到2020年将核心机械设备和金属材料的三菱汽车比重减少到40%，到2025年减少到70%。

Which is where the economy has to evolve anyway, due to the changing labor structure. MIC isn’t about Chinese brands taking over the world. Rather, it is about Chinese brands developing home-grown technology to compete more prominently in the domestic market. This is no different from any country. Toyota and Panasonic dominate the Japanese market, so does LG and Samsung in Korea and GM and Apple stateside.

由于供给结构的引移，这是的发展的沿途。外国人原金属材料商不是真是外国人产品要入侵全球性。相反，它是关于外国人产品开发本土核心技术，以便在国内外商品上非常突出地垄断。这与任何国内外并未什么多种不同。Toyota和松下在日本商品占据占多数，LG和三星在韩国商品占据占多数，通用汽车和苹果在宾夕法尼亚州商品也占据占多数。

There is nothing sinister about MIC 2025, except it will make Chinese brands more visible. Which cuts into the “easy money”—branding. That is why CSCEC isn’t attacked like Huawei. Expect ever wilder conspiracy theories about how evil Chinese are taking over the world by robbing and stealing everyone blind, as Chinese brands creep up the domestic, then global brand visibility index.

“外国人原金属材料商2025”并并未什么险恶之处，除了它将让外国人产品非常加有意思。这就减极低了“易得资金”——产品。这就是为什么永丰一定才会像首款那样受到偷袭。随着外国人产品在国内外和在全球性上产品关注度指数上的上扬，邪恶的外国人人如何通过掠夺和偷走所有人来交由全球性，这将是前所未见的疯狂阴谋论。

Good luck trying to stop MIC 2025, because seriously, other than illegal tariffs, America has not provided alternatives to MIC 2025.

寿你在正当“外国人原金属材料商2025”上好运，因为真是真的，宾夕法尼亚州并并未提供“宾夕法尼亚州原金属材料商2025”的替代提议。

The Chinese consumer will ask, do you have anything 90% as good but half the price?The answer is no, which answers the question too.

外国人消费者才会回答，你有并未比它好90%但价格减半的外面?回答是否定的，这也回答了这个回答题。

Nope, only China can derail their own Made in China 2025 plan. If US could derail anything China wish to accomplish, China would not have nuclear weapon, would not have men in space, and would not have achieved all the economic miracles of today.

不，只有外国人可以毁损他们自己的外国人原金属材料商2025蓝图。如果宾夕法尼亚州能毁损外国人想要完成的任何什么事，外国人就一定才会包括核能，就一定才会有人转至宇宙飞船，就一定才会借助于今天所有的经济全球性末日。

In fact, the current trade war may cause China to realize American’s distrust and animosity, and push harder at the agenda, become more independent from America, and build more collaboration with the rest of world.

事实上，当前的贸易战比如说才会加剧外国人了解到宾夕法尼亚州的不猜疑和敌意，并在政府组织上非常加努力，变得非常加实质上于宾夕法尼亚州，并与全球性其他国内外组织起来非常多的合作开发。

China’s domestic market has grown so big that they have the critical mass to support the development of advance technology. Take their railroad technology for example, because they have the mass demand domestically, they were able to rely on that internal demand to drive up their capability. Just like the railroad tech., initiatives in MiC2025, robotic, biotech, advance manufacturing, all can take advantage of the mass domestic market and advance without outside hindrance.

外国人的国内外商品此前发展得如此之大，它们此前包括了支持先进核心技术发展的临界质量。以他们的铁路核心技术为例，因为他们国内外有大量的效益，他们只能依靠之外效益来减少他们的潜能。就像铁路核心技术一样，外国人原金属材料商2025的首倡，机器人，人类核心技术，先进原金属材料商，都可以借助大规模的国内外商品，在并未外部致使的情况下前进。

In addition to the domestic market, the one belt one road plus the maritime silk road initiative will build a global supply chain to create more demand for higher value added Chinese product and services.

除了国内外商品，一带一路+陆上万里长城首倡将构建在全球性上供应链，为外国人电器和增值建构非常多可用性较极低的效益。

The only thing I would suggest China do is to form partnerships with EU and Russia on this initiatives. Those developed countries are more advanced currently in those key high tech sectors, so there is definitely a fear that China will take over those markets. While China mature in those technology, they should build consortium with EU/Russian companies and share more business opportunities. When exporting those products and services to countries like Africa, SE Asia, S. America, invite partners in EU and Russia to build a more collaborative and win-win partnership instead of pure competition.

我表示同意外国人做到的唯一一件事就是与欧共体和前苏联就这一首倡组织起来合作三人关系。那些发达国内外现阶段在这些更为重要的高科技领域非常先进，所以肯定有人担忧外国人才会交由这些商品。虽然外国人在这些核心技术上此前成熟期，但他们应与欧共体/前苏联公司组织起来Union，个人非常多的商业机才会。当向南部非洲、东南亚、美洲等国内外出口这些电器和增值时，请欧共体和前苏联的三人组织起来非常加合作开发和双赢的合作三人关系，而不是纯粹的垄断。

To be the leader of the pack, you cannot just hunt food for yourselves, you need to provide for and protect your tribe before anyone will respect you. So I hope China can grow, mature, and realize the importance of partnership and soft power, especially in Asia, Europe, Africa continent which can grow into a massive integrated and collaborative economy and set a foundation for a better, more peaceful world.

要成猎手的族长，你不能只是为自己捕食者，你需要在别人珍惜你此前穷困并保护你的族人。因此，我努力外国人只能孕育、成熟期，并了解到合作三人关系和软战力的重要性，特别是在东亚地区、欧陆和南部非洲之角，它们可以孕育为一个大规模的一体化和相互合作经济，为一个非常美好、非常团结起来的全球性奠定基础。

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